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The stock market is good, therefore the economy is good, right?

by Ron Holdraker
July 25, 2020

The very simple answer is NO!

Have you ever noticed how, when a news story breaks, the stock market will quiver? A president, politician, federal employer makes a statement, an oil ship is commandeered, or a skirmish breaks out around the world, all have a say on the floor of the stockexchange. Employment numbers are not what were expected, the national debt  spikes, the president tweets, the market takes a dive.

You hear people say “all is well”  since my retirement funds are up, my stocks are doing great. Therefore, all is right in the world.

At this point I confess my retirement package is way up. My private stocks have jumped $2000 in the last several weeks. So, I should be happy?

Absolutely not. I am now considering dumping stocks I have held for many years.

Why you ask? Because I know what is coming. Our national debt is way out of whack. The COVID thing is only partially to blame.

Columnist Robert J. Samuelson recently wrote:

“Under the “pessimistic” assumptions, the unemployment rate is projected at 11.3 percent at the end of 2020 and the economy (gross domestic product) falls 7.3 percent for the year. Both the unemployment rate and the GDP decline are larger than in any previous post-World War II recession. By way of comparison, the peak monthly jobless rate in the Great Recession of 2007-2009 was 10 percent.”... “A new report from the Congressional Budget Office foresees a slightly brighter future. It reckons the GDP decline for 2020 at 5.9 percent and year-end unemployment at 10.5 percent. Hardly a boom. The presidential campaign magnifies the uncertainty. President Trump or former vice president Joe Biden could easily say something that sharply moves the market...Still, the stock market is clearly overpriced by standard measures.”

The Republican tax break raised already rising employment. The upper crust had more money to invest and made more money, but there is a downside. The jobs created are mostly in the lower paying service industry, not manufacturing.

The “Buy America” slogan is a joke. Major automotive, steel, coal jobs are never going to return to past glories. Carbon-based fuels are running their course, regardless of what the current administration is pushing. That is a fact.

Major industries realized the change was coming a decade ago and advanced plans for the next generation.

The current administration discarded laws to protect the ecology/climate change in favor of short term gains. Again, many industries knew this, but took advantage of laxing regulations to make more money.

Now the current administration is saying that unless they are kept in power, the economy, the stock market will fall. That is true, but it is going to happen whether the current power brokers remain or are replaced.

Unsustainable growth, failure to realize total globalization and solid trade deals will eventually catch up to reality. Market changes and even climate are a reality, and, if we do not respond,  we will follow down the path of pathetic.

Making this a Republica/Democrat battle is futile. Simply put, it is going to happen. We cannot continue national spending at the current rates. Kicking the ball down the field for the next generation will come back and bite us all in the ass.

Taking this economy back to dependence on manufacturing is unreal. As  consumers, we want the best and cheapest price for goods. TVs, cars, all electronics, apparel, even the price on your sneakers would skyrocket in any attempt to fall back on the old days.

The only way to solve the impending doom and gloom is to realize Americans are not alone in the world, understand what trade and globalization truly mean. We must grab the national debt by the reins and pull back spending.

We have a very few short years to grow up, so get off your high horses and soak in some reality.

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