ALBANY — The anticipated gubernatorial face-off between Gov. Kathy Hochul and likely Republican candidate U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik may be narrower than previously predicted, according to a new poll commissioned by one of Stefanik’s federal political action committees.

The poll, released Thursday, surveyed 1,250 likely voters in the 2026 midterm elections and found that Hochul holds only a five point lead over Stefanik — a stark difference from the 25 points projected by the most recent Siena Research Institute poll in September. Stefanik, who represents a red upstate congressional district in deep-blue New York, is expected to formally announce her bid in November after local elections conclude.

GrayHouse, the firm that conducted the poll, often conducts polls for Republican candidates, and founder Landon Wall is described as a “trusted advisor to Republican leadership” on the firm’s website.

The gap between Hochul, who the poll projects to win 48% of the vote, and Stefanik, 43%, shrunk to less than a percentage point “after voters hear information about both candidates, including Hochul’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, bail reform record, and cost of living failures,” according to an internal memo about the poll by GrayHouse.

The poll found that 40% of respondents have a favorable opinion of the governor while 57% have an unfavorable opinion. Similarly, 39% said they approve of the job she is doing as governor, while 56% said they disapprove.

Stefanik had 35% of respondents viewing her favorably and 33% unfavorably.

“The data is clear,” Stefanik said in a news release about the poll released by her press team. “Kathy Hochul, the worst governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party.”

Alex deGrasse, a senior adviser to Stefanik, added that “what is truly remarkable” about the poll is seeing these results even while Stefanik has not yet formally announced a campaign for governor. He also said that seven Republican polls conducted by three different firms independently from the team have all cast the race no more than six points apart. One of these was an April poll by the same firm that was self-funded — not commissioned by Stefanik’s team — and found a six point lead by Hochul over Stefanik.

He emphasized that the poll queried many more registered Democrats than Republicans: 605 Democrats, 333 Republicans and 312 independents. Statewide, the population breakdown is similar: there is roughly two registered Democrats for every Republican and independent.

Sarafina Chitika, a campaign spokeswoman for Hochul, called the poll a product of Stefanik’s “desperate attempt to run against Zohran Mamdani instead of her actual would-be opponent.”

“Sellout Elise Stefanik is so scared to face Gov. Hochul she’s made up a new opponent — anything to hide her extreme record of gutting New Yorkers’ health care, jacking up prices, and throwing her constituents under the bus to serve Donald Trump,” Chitika said in a statement.

She also questioned the veracity of the GOP-aligned poll, calling it “a real aberration from standard practice that calls credibility of results into practice.”

Read the full story at timesunion.com